How will Apple's refurbished phones sell in the future?

In 2024, Driven by Generative AI and Emerging Market Recovery, the Global Smartphone Market Returns to Growth While the Refurbished Segment Maintains Steady Expansion

In 2024, fueled by generative AI and the economic recovery of several emerging markets, the global smartphone market ended years of decline and returned to growth. Meanwhile, the refurbished smartphone market has maintained steady growth in recent years, with analysts optimistic about its expansion in 2025.

Refurbished Smartphone Market Shows Consistent Growth

A recent *Refurbished Smartphone Market Report* by Counterpoint Research reveals that global sales of refurbished smartphones grew by 5% year-over-year (YoY) in 2024, similar to the growth rate observed since 2022.

According to earlier data from IDC and other agencies, the global refurbished smartphone market grew by 6.4% YoY in 2023, with shipments reaching 195 million units and a total market value of $72.9 billion. In 2022, sales of refurbished smartphones increased by 5%.

"In contrast, the new smartphone market rebounded after a challenging 2023, growing by 3% YoY. However, after two to three years of consecutive growth across regions, the refurbished smartphone market has matured in 2024, even stagnating in some areas," Counterpoint Research noted.

The report also highlights that due to shortages in new-model supply, the average selling price (ASP) of refurbished smartphones dropped from $445 in 2023 to $394 in 2024. Meanwhile, 5G smartphones accounted for 42% of the global refurbished market in 2024, up from 28% in 2023.

Glen Cardoza, Senior Research Analyst at Counterpoint Research, stated that the share of 5G refurbished smartphones could have been even higher if not for the iPhone supply constraints from Q2 to Q4 2024.

Notably, sales of "as-is" smartphones (devices that are only cleaned and repackaged without technical repairs) grew by 13% YoY in 2024. Cardoza explained that modern devices are more durable, leading to higher-quality trade-ins and reducing the need for refurbishment. Additionally, rising costs for components, labor, and equipment have prompted many sellers to sell used smartphones "as-is" to maintain profit margins.

Apple’s Market Share Rises to 56%

From a brand perspective, Apple’s refurbished smartphones play a pivotal role in the global market.

Counterpoint Research’s report shows that Apple further solidified its dominance, increasing its market share to 56% in 2024, up from 51% in 2023.

"Apple single-handedly drove the growth of the refurbished smartphone market in 2024. It was one of the few brands to achieve sales growth, boosting its market share from 51% to 56%. More consumers are turning to the refurbished market to purchase iPhones at more affordable prices," the report stated.

Cardoza noted that Apple’s growth was primarily driven by the iPhone 11 and iPhone 12 series. Despite the availability of newer models like the iPhone 13 and iPhone 14, many consumers are holding onto their devices longer, tightening supply. The shortage of new iPhones significantly impacted the global refurbished market’s ASP, which fell by 11% YoY in 2024 to $394, down from $445 in 2023. In contrast, while Samsung’s overall market share declined, its ASP rose due to strong demand for its Galaxy S flagship series.

IDC previously pointed out that compared to the new smartphone market, the refurbished segment appears more vibrant. Since some devices require additional repairs and refurbishment, this market tends to favor flagship models and well-established brands, making them more appealing to consumers.

Optimistic Outlook for 2025

Regarding the future of the refurbished market, Jan Stryjak, Associate Director at Counterpoint Research, said, "Due to supply constraints, growth in 2024 was stable. However, we expect a recovery in 2025 as devices purchased during the post-pandemic consumption surge (2020–2022) enter the replacement cycle. Moving forward, the refurbished business will focus more on strategic inventory management, potentially boosting trade growth in emerging markets."

IDC forecasts that global refurbished smartphone shipments will reach 257 million units by 2028, with a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.7%. The market value is also expected to grow steadily, with a projected CAGR of 5.5%. These figures provide strong momentum for the refurbished smartphone market, attracting more young consumers to participate in second-hand transactions.

In China, data shows that approximately 280 million used smartphones were recycled in 2023, with over 250 million units resold directly or after refurbishment. The hidden value of the refurbished market exceeds 600 billion yuan, indicating vast potential.

Industry experts generally agree that improving recycling channels requires unified technical and pricing standards. Only by ensuring fair trade-in valuations can used devices circulate efficiently within a unified national market, generating economies of scale.